Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e51c4f0c1d65d6084727a081fbe07798cc0173562e26ace86febb69ee344ce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 1,147$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 19c | 905.43$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.27 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 11c | 710.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 593.93$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 11c | 434.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 433.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 424$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 410.55$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed No | 78c | 363.93$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 27c | 340.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 311.97$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…7b89backed Yes | 27c | 299.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 7c | 294.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 277.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 19c | 257.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 16c | 247.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 247$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 241.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 236.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 221$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 22c | 187.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 22c | 183.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 19c | 167.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 17c | 149.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 15c | 145.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 78c | 130.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7359…ee92backed No | 72c | 129.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 16c | 120.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 119.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 23c | 119.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 29c | 109.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 107.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 105.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…6391backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394e…516bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…623abacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 18c | 99.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 33c | 99.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 31c | 99.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 20c | 99.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 17c | 96.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…8f98backed Yes | 23c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 17c | 95.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 94.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 93.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 18c | 83.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…7bd1backed Yes | 24c | 77.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 76.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 21c | 75.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 75.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…076dbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 27c | 68.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 17c | 66.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4469…d709backed Yes | 28c | 63.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 63c | 63.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…ea7fbacked No | 79c | 62.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…4b6ebacked Yes | 28c | 62.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 31c | 54.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf60…a254backed Yes | 19c | 53.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…9d37backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 74c | 40.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 34.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 32.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…7525backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 65c | 30.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 33c | 30.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…7116backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 78c | 29.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 71c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.