Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02fbe3091edc09e30452c251dc0ab8d68256ad4db7072bc5e206cf1047134ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed Yes | 0c | 38,500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed Yes | 0c | 21,732$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…a977backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 25c | 894.43$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.27 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 5c | 807.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 793.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 79c | 499.95$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 461.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 10c | 415.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 4c | 360.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 285.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 268.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 249.09$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…dd89backed Yes | 6c | 229.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 217.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 18c | 214.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 24c | 205.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 194.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 23c | 192.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 7c | 188.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 18c | 185.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 14c | 183.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 27c | 178.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…0e08backed Yes | 20c | 178.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 171.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 154.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 26c | 154.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 28c | 152.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 20c | 151.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0d…a09abacked Yes | 30c | 140.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 22c | 139.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 77c | 136.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…ae15backed Yes | 22c | 133.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…2be7backed Yes | 30c | 131$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 120.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 120.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 30c | 118.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 118.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec8…a75dbacked Yes | 25c | 113$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 29c | 110.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 106.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 100.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 21c | 100.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…8a92backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c0…01a4backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…623abacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…9be5backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 93.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…8342backed Yes | 22c | 90.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 34c | 89.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7696…8935backed Yes | 23c | 85.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 19c | 83.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 80.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 20c | 79.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed Yes | 23c | 76.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 27c | 74.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 14c | 73.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 21c | 71.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 21c | 69.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…0b84backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…9b19backed No | 69c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…7fc9backed No | 70c | 53.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d24…9f38backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…2cbebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…e6d8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe63…cb9ebacked No | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 70c | 47.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…076dbacked Yes | 33c | 45.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c4…550fbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e16…6df4backed Yes | 24c | 43.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…9d4cbacked No | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b00…c3bdbacked No | 74c | 41.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…c4d3backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…b546backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bf…a07cbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…fe90backed No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 70c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…33d0backed No | 79c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -82%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed No | 76c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.