Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad028751a81b90b1dd8e0893d18609662519a25a7f9271c48075e5c44c52cad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 8c | 1,199$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 663 | 21.7%144 W · 519 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 29c | 861.23$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.92 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 859.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 10c | 800.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 663 | 27.8%184 W · 479 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 29c | 605.7$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.44 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 9c | 539.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 185 | 33%61 W · 124 L | -18.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 465.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…425cbacked Yes | 2c | 458.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 433.17$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…1109backed Yes | 26c | 410$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 31c | 405.96$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 358.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 23c | 278.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed Yes | 36c | 276.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 270$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 254.78$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 228.08$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…ae15backed Yes | 27c | 222$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 14c | 218.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 204.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…9c79backed Yes | 9c | 185.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 9c | 183.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 27c | 181.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…8342backed Yes | 27c | 164.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 31c | 162.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…dd8fbacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 136.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 130.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 123.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 25c | 118$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c95…9ac0backed Yes | 25c | 117$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 26c | 114.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 18c | 111.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 34c | 101.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 29c | 100.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…9be5backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 26c | 97.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…e78cbacked Yes | 25c | 91.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 91.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 91.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 14c | 91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 90.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 89.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…8a92backed Yes | 34c | 81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…a39fbacked Yes | 19c | 80.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…b9a1backed Yes | 34c | 77.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 76.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed Yes | 27c | 76.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 68c | 73.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…06a1backed Yes | 24c | 71.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…0e08backed Yes | 25c | 68.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 65.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 33c | 58.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 27c | 55.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…6679backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 21c | 50.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…3ee1backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d24…9f38backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…ea3fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…1f4fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…9d37backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 80c | 45.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 45.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 41.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed No | 67c | 41.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 66c | 38.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 28c | 37.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 75c | 34.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 575 | 27.8%160 W · 415 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 69c | 28.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 66c | 26.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…fe90backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 24.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…551ebacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 65c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.