MLB · resolved market
NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac599064b6aca7b831f4a6fa2cced5e22c2aae1bb8d074fd49b3d9744e4111c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Yes | 52c | 5,200$2,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,495.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 48c | 2,566$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.8 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed No | 50c | 1,688$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 49c | 1,569$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.76 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 48c | 689.27$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.65 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 49c | 641.53$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.18 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 50c | 535.92$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.96 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 51c | 489$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.39 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…33d9backed Yes | 56c | 402.47$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.87 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed No | 51c | 384.35$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Yes | 50c | 334.9$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.45 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…6311backed No | 52c | 331.5$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 51c | 316$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.16 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Yes | 49c | 314.34$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Yes | 50c | 278.76$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.38 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Yes | 49c | 264.97$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 45c | 231.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 49c | 220.4$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 48c | 203$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Yes | 50c | 197$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 50c | 133.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 50c | 109.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes | 50c | 95.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed No | 48c | 68.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 48c | 66.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed No | 41c | 54.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 50c | 49.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Yes | 49c | 35.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed Yes | 55c | 30.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padresthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.