MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1fe4d7832f60de0c803b5f6f5aeb96ed8c4f9d1406b8930c42cdb6e883dc960
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 50c | 98,573$48,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,832.97 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebf…3b02backed Under | 52c | 23,000$11,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,039.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec7e…5fddbacked Under | 50c | 16,912$8,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,456.23 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 50c | 14,813$7,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,406.29 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 13,940$6,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,970 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 50c | 10,766$5,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,383.03 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 50c | 5,248$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.04 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 50c | 1,970$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 1,730$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.7 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 1,479$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.69 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 1,478$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.75 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Under | 50c | 1,478$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 895.88$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 48c | 367.41$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.36 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 334.59$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.3 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 50c | 298.46$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.23 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Over | 48c | 206.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 319 | 49.5%158 W · 161 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 50c | 197$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…33d9backed Under | 50c | 197$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 50c | 197$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 48c | 194.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 50c | 177.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Over | 48c | 165.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 258 | 51.9%134 W · 124 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 48c | 147.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Over | 48c | 146.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 406 | 48.5%197 W · 209 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Over | 48c | 126.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Over | 48c | 106.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4e…e935backed Over | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc568…ecb7backed Under | 50c | 99.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 48c | 85.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Over | 48c | 85.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 280 | 49.6%139 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Under | 50c | 78.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 53c | 76.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Over | 48c | 71.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 50c | 68.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 51c | 64.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 50c | 63.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 62.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Under | 50c | 62.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 50c | 62.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Over | 48c | 41.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…06b3backed Over | 48c | 41.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…b6d0backed Over | 49c | 39.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 53c | 37.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 47c | 37.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 36.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…544bbacked Over | 48c | 26.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 50c | 24.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Over | 48c | 24.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 52c | 22.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 50c | 21.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresYes won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.