Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac60245b905f4369a50c2157bc27fc939a7649168ea4732adb9499a404e30187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fnaticof Fnatic, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa39…bb64backed Fnatic | 78c | 16,707$12,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,755.2 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Fnatic | 64c | 7,058$4,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530.99 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Fnatic | 51c | 2,449$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.23 | 93 | 71%66 W · 27 L | +15.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 2,178$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.13 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 2,070$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.94 | 339 | 42.2%143 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed Fnatic | 80c | 1,922$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.49 | 600 | 22.7%136 W · 464 L | -26.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,915$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.92 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…492dbacked Natus Vincere | 3c | 1,816$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Fnatic | 46c | 1,589$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.23 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Fnatic | 67c | 1,504$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.16 | 409 | 44.3%181 W · 228 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Fnatic | 64c | 1,408$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.75 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Fnatic | 59c | 1,404$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.84 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 883.25$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.97 | 425 | 40.5%172 W · 253 L | -22.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Fnatic | 43c | 712.17$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.94 | 101 | 59.4%60 W · 41 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Fnatic | 79c | 659.08$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 563 | 57.9%326 W · 237 L | +36.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Fnatic | 77c | 635.23$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 533 | 55.3%295 W · 238 L | +24.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57d…07bfbacked Fnatic | 52c | 577.53$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.86 | 145 | 34.5%50 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Fnatic | 72c | 557.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 534.39$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.54 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Fnatic | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.35 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed Fnatic | 41c | 499.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.61 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…891cbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 444$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…ba5cbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 426.68$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 424$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 421.57$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.02 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 415.77$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 366.74$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.59 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 330$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 321.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.21 | 375 | 45.6%171 W · 204 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 280.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 418 | 35.6%149 W · 269 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 235.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 171.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 279 | 47.7%133 W · 146 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37db…dff4backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 151.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 147 | 37.4%55 W · 92 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0170…394fbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 125.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 116.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 105.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 94.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fnatic | 80c | 92.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Fnatic | 62c | 83.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Fnatic | 62c | 81.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Fnatic | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2460…e144backed Fnatic | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 62.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Natus Vincere | 23c | 62.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 251 | 41.4%104 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Fnatic | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…8981backed Fnatic | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Fnatic | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 38.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fnatic | 67c | 35.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f12…a27abacked Fnatic | 50c | 35.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ae…b929backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 34.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fnatic | 55c | 33.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 30.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 30.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 183 | 3.3%6 W · 177 L | -73.1wins | -0.40per pick | 43cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 11-0.35 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Fnatic | 80c | 26.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Fnatic | 60c | 21.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…59c2backed Fnatic | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Fnatic | 64c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 241 | 40.2%97 W · 144 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2Natus Vincere won
- Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.