MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac690c7667cda1dc40266a9f31d4cd047c91a6bf319c8a1f6824ffeefec571b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Houston Astros | 53c | 10,000$5,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,260.51 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 7,331$3,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,853.58 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Houston Astros | 52c | 5,044$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Kansas City Royals | 48c | 3,355$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.57 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked Kansas City Royals | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Houston Astros | 16c | 1,801$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.68 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Houston Astros | 51c | 1,667$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.29 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Houston Astros | 53c | 1,579$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.94 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 1,327$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.84 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 1,010$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.2 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kansas City Royals | 48c | 996.92$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.4 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 638$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.14 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Houston Astros | 51c | 410$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 388.16$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.16 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 299.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.95 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Kansas City Royals | 48c | 297$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Houston Astros | 38c | 265.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 253.79$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Kansas City Royals | 48c | 248$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 200.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Houston Astros | 16c | 157.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Houston Astros | 53c | 138.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 101.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Houston Astros | 50c | 99.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 37.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Houston Astros | 52c | 30.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Kansas City Royals | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Houston Astros | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Houston Astros | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.