Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac7e7377a027c08df02d6adbf08871c5ba354ee37891ebff079cd802361852c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 57c | 2,475$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.98 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 1,826$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 44c | 1,194$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.49 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 42c | 687.68$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.09 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 67c | 600.21$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 557.48$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.18 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 42c | 475.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 438.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 31c | 265.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 48c | 225.87$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 72c | 198.48$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 54c | 195$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 23c | 190.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 190.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 179.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 46c | 176.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 78c | 170.89$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 33c | 139.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 136.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 45c | 134.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 79c | 128.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 119.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 52c | 114.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 67c | 104.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 101.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae8…6012backed No | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 637 | 50.1%319 W · 318 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 53c | 94.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 159 | 26.4%42 W · 117 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 65c | 92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 54c | 89.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…697cbacked Yes | 56c | 88.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 39c | 84.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 33c | 75.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 66c | 74.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 67.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 45c | 55.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 62c | 52.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 62c | 50.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 374 | 67.4%252 W · 122 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 49.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 41c | 46.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 65c | 46.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 43c | 44.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed No | 43c | 35.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2705…a12abacked Yes | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 63c | 31.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 45c | 31.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed Yes | 54c | 31.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 28.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 55c | 28.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 36c | 28.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 50c | 28.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 53c | 25.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 25.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 59c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…8a79backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 59c | 24.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 69c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…e9afbacked Yes | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed Yes | 75c | 20.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.