Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf92fb5ec2829e48642498c8fad45b84b2a9e019c42b5ebd57ac9e98131f17b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 400$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 336.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 272.13$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 70c | 268.72$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 253.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 183.92$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 67c | 170.87$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked Yes | 7c | 153.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 137.26$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 31c | 134.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 9c | 122.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 35c | 89.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 88.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 21c | 87.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 185 | 42.2%78 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 40c | 80.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 35c | 78.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 77.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 70.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 68.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 55.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 53.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 48.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 47.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 27c | 42.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…795bbacked Yes | 30c | 38.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 59c | 36.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 35.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 35c | 33.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e25…ef0ebacked Yes | 40c | 27.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…fc83backed No | 63c | 25.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 70c | 21.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 64c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 14.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 73c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.