South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac9ce4d710dc90bd1b0770d4379390dedd20f1a720d6e7063f6b675f6d123239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4064…f741backed Over | 50c | 3,983$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 2,500$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.96 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…28abbacked Over | 52c | 1,631$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…4c5cbacked Over | 50c | 1,139$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 52c | 936$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 594.08$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.72 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 49c | 429.14$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.28 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 411.67$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.24 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 49c | 397.74$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.89 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 378.79$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.9 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…4ce4backed Under | 54c | 308.69$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Over | 61c | 270.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 48c | 260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 48c | 260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 62c | 215$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 25c | 177.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 49c | 166.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Under | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 143.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 69c | 127.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 66c | 103.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 69c | 82.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 49c | 56.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 57c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5this page
- Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)EC Vitória won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.