TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Conor Gannonof Bernard Tomic, Conor Gannon
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,430 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fd6…1fa0backed Bernard Tomic58c7,646$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4003040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Conor Gannon40c7,405$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,434.7811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Bernard Tomic53c7,216$3,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.428,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Conor Gannon43c3,627$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.88,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Bernard Tomic73c2,500$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8259,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07c…edc7backed Conor Gannon17c2,482$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.051764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Conor Gannon15c2,035$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.251,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Conor Gannon36c1,542$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.346,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Conor Gannon44c1,364$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.341,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Bernard Tomic79c1,218$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.163,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Conor Gannon50c1,162$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.22,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Bernard Tomic78c1,152$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.224,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Conor Gannon7c746.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.6310440.4%42 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6d2…4a24backed Conor Gannon10c692.77$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.7452910%53 W · 476 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Conor Gannon13c572.54$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.455,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Bernard Tomic78c558.42$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.5823954.8%131 W · 108 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Conor Gannon13c522.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.572,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Bernard Tomic73c500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3654,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Conor Gannon24c483.46$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.3219410.3%20 W · 174 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Conor Gannon43c458.05$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.741,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Conor Gannon21c419.05$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.0537235.2%131 W · 241 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Conor Gannon40c407.75$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.6527753.4%148 W · 129 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Bernard Tomic69c389.13$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.391,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Conor Gannon6c340$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.661924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Conor Gannon43c331.39$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.552,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Conor Gannon45c296.56$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.114,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Conor Gannon11c286$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5442359.1%250 W · 173 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Conor Gannon13c243.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.771,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc908…2f61backed Bernard Tomic77c239.6$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854148.8%20 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Bernard Tomic60c228.67$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.22,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Bernard Tomic58c210$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.64,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ccc…77abbacked Bernard Tomic77c199.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9925854.3%140 W · 118 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfffa…17c5backed Conor Gannon34c197.56$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7336545.2%165 W · 200 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Conor Gannon22c187.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.991,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed Conor Gannon46c186.4$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4410451.9%54 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Bernard Tomic63c181.37$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.811,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eac…9b93backed Conor Gannon26c176.84$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.598331.3%26 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccd5…b065backed Conor Gannon44c176$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.42035%7 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Conor Gannon41c173.52$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.523,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d9c…cf78backed Conor Gannon21c160.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1911131.5%35 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b3e…ae5bbacked Bernard Tomic67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Conor Gannon14c143$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.982,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Conor Gannon34c142.41$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.938,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4224…31fbbacked Bernard Tomic13c142.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1822138.9%86 W · 135 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Conor Gannon42c139.37$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.373,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c97…5c66backed Conor Gannon44c136.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4348355.1%266 W · 217 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Conor Gannon41c126.72$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.121,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Conor Gannon42c125.09$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.092,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…32a5backed Conor Gannon8c125$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152228.6%19 W · 203 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Bernard Tomic58c124.92$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3578847.5%374 W · 414 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Bernard Tomic21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.230040%120 W · 180 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Conor Gannon23c118.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2752854.9%290 W · 238 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Bernard Tomic58c114.3$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3860651.8%314 W · 292 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Conor Gannon43c104.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.62,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Bernard Tomic21c102$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4219941.7%83 W · 116 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Conor Gannon13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Conor Gannon45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5526345.6%120 W · 143 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Conor Gannon13c96.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.651,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed Bernard Tomic75c89.25$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9856070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Conor Gannon23c81.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5736839.1%144 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a2…8ff7backed Conor Gannon14c80.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.839443.9%173 W · 221 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1400…765dbacked Conor Gannon20c75.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7932732.1%105 W · 222 L-0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Bernard Tomic53c71.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.913,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Conor Gannon17c69.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.754,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Conor Gannon26c68$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.522,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x791b…9073backed Bernard Tomic49c67.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed Conor Gannon48c64.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5879646%366 W · 430 L+1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Bernard Tomic78c64.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5078857.1%450 W · 338 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Conor Gannon44c63.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.81,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Conor Gannon28c62.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.12832.1%9 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8741…5b0abacked Conor Gannon35c59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.624351.2%22 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa56d…3053backed Bernard Tomic59c55.93$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3321765.9%143 W · 74 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Bernard Tomic77c53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8122667.7%153 W · 73 L+1.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Bernard Tomic48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2541544.3%184 W · 231 L-1.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Bernard Tomic53c48.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6876853%407 W · 361 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Conor Gannon26c46.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.972,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Conor Gannon37c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3574955.1%413 W · 336 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe246…dedcbacked Bernard Tomic53c42.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5530055.7%167 W · 133 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ee0…1006backed Bernard Tomic45c42.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.137462.2%46 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Bernard Tomic53c38.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.615,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Bernard Tomic53c38.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3148652.1%253 W · 233 L-1.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe432…a4a4backed Bernard Tomic66c37.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Conor Gannon45c34.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.231,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Bernard Tomic53c34.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5461752.5%324 W · 293 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x787d…aecdbacked Bernard Tomic76c34.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.138860.6%235 W · 153 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Bernard Tomic79c33.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.481,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Bernard Tomic79c33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0792674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Bernard Tomic64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2059965.8%394 W · 205 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19bd…ae36backed Bernard Tomic56c30.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179458.5%55 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1071…503bbacked Bernard Tomic80c27.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221050%5 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Bernard Tomic44c26.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe997…61b6backed Conor Gannon49c22.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.766926.1%18 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…86dbbacked Bernard Tomic59c22.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2113949.6%69 W · 70 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Bernard Tomic58c22.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.771,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbafb…3031backed Bernard Tomic77c20.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7133673.2%246 W · 90 L-15.2wins-0.05per pick78cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Bernard Tomic64c19.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7449749.9%248 W · 249 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e20…5cf9backed Bernard Tomic59c19.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3135555.5%197 W · 158 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Bernard Tomic68c15.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.633,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Bernard Tomic76c13.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062549.6%310 W · 315 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.