TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes25c454.01$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7332041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes25c410.27$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9544536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes37c373.52$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.084035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No64c308.19$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.1742754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes37c224.35$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.781,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes28c209.24$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.586,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c199.46$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes23c171$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.331,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c170.09$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.672,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9af…7722backed Yes41c168.81$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.834228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c154.73$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd93d…72d2backed Yes38c151.74$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c147$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.635,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2065…548abacked Yes28c139.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.833923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes36c132.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.151,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c131.71$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.228,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ecc…d023backed Yes35c130.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2110647.2%50 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No59c114.52$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.523,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes38c109.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.545,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No63c105.39$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9929345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes25c86.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5117231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8174…be40backed Yes39c85.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.33043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8be…ee6fbacked Yes12c83.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcadf…b2e3backed Yes24c82.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No77c81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.632,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked Yes33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.47755.8%43 W · 34 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes14c79.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.136,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Yes38c75.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.069345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes15c74.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.222,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes30c74.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.684,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1325…8fd1backed No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441090%9 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick65cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes54c69.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.042653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c67.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes37c64.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.21,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No68c58.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6524164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes43c56.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6142253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c54.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.515,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No72c51.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.724,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes36c51.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.641,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No63c51.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.755,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No75c51.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8175546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes40c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8644646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.57655.3%42 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1870148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No63c49.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c46$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.54,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No61c43.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.981,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No63c43.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9813959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No61c40.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9983360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes38c40.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2871649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x988e…d0d0backed No63c38.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.111369.9%79 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No48c35.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5717747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes40c35.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.283,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No74c35.54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.114,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa087…91f7backed Yes40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1417635.2%62 W · 114 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No63c34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.581,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No62c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7864167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No48c30.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9318046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.72,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.13,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef11…a7a1backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bbb…d419backed No80c28.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.71978.9%15 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes39c28.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No78c27.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2239768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd20e…b050backed Yes39c27.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick54cpaid+68%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No59c24.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.217165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No60c23.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3344567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No60c23.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3328866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c20.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.283,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.626067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb5…3d4fbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+41.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No65c17.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.211,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c17.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.734,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…ea66backed No64c16.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.085962.7%37 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3564…c4cebacked No62c16.77$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.372171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No62c16.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2794066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e8…f207backed No75c14.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.454667.4%31 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.