Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d6293c71be0624da23fdc6a7af6f65bd309c4004b218994b8852a2e9b8cf932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 675.83$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 519.72$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 444.69$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 32c | 432.69$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.69 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 386.25$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 339.48$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 32c | 338.82$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.31 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 321.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.83 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 67c | 314.26$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 292.81$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 31c | 290.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.47 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 43c | 278.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 272.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 248.16$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.69 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 221.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 32c | 216.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 210.35$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 32c | 209.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 195.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 186.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 34c | 176.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 168.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 40c | 160.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed Yes | 71c | 134.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 128.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 119.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 66c | 97.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 23c | 96.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 94.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 17c | 93.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 31c | 92.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 79c | 87.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 78.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 69c | 77.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 73.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…9b38backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 77c | 68.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 67.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 79c | 62.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 60.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 37c | 59.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 26c | 56.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 37c | 56.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 54.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 52.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 58c | 52.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 70c | 52.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 51.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 50.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 50.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 39c | 50.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 28c | 47.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 64c | 44.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 67c | 44.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 43.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 43.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 76c | 41.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…43aabacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 50c | 39.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…b050backed Yes | 41c | 38.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +68%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 80c | 38.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 60c | 37.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked No | 79c | 37.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…6670backed No | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 32c | 35.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 35.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 75c | 33.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 77c | 30.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 75c | 28.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 63c | 27.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…af5bbacked No | 79c | 25.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 63c | 23.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 22.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 72c | 18.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 68c | 17.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 17.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 63c | 16.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 15.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 70c | 14.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.