Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad1445dca4193062d0a945caf7a39e5d1387eb091c3dbbc19323d2ee25d6c517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,657 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 1c | 4,805$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894f…b53abacked Yes | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…0422backed Yes | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…db3abacked No | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d99…12fbbacked No | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3c…2775backed Yes | 54c | 1,950$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…561ebacked No | 46c | 1,950$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ac05backed No | 45c | 1,900$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8a…a7acbacked Yes | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 15c | 1,058$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 846.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 53c | 524.94$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.94 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 509.12$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 56c | 392.93$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.79 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 57c | 368$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.92 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 8c | 356.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 350.84$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 53c | 348.28$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.86 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 4c | 347.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 284.77$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.64 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 58c | 276.11$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.61 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 272.58$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 271.76$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 50c | 252.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.21 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 56c | 233.12$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 230.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 200.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 69c | 200.36$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 35c | 200.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 68c | 200.22$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 45c | 199.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 39c | 198.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 45c | 197.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 34c | 191.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 53c | 190.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…f98bbacked Yes | 55c | 180.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf198…dfedbacked Yes | 41c | 180.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 56c | 180.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 38c | 176.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 173.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 58c | 169$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e32…000ebacked No | 9c | 168.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 24c | 166$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.73 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…8325backed No | 7c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 159.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 59c | 158.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a5…2772backed Yes | 43c | 152$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…ded8backed Yes | 46c | 151$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 27c | 150.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…e741backed Yes | 68c | 147.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 140.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked No | 30c | 129.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 57c | 128.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 45c | 125$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 49c | 119.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 119.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 119.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 78c | 115.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 61c | 114.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 43c | 110.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 38c | 110.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 104.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 45c | 100.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 37c | 98.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Yes | 57c | 98.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 63c | 94.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 47c | 89.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 52c | 86.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 59c | 84.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 49c | 81.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 77c | 81.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…427cbacked Yes | 51c | 80.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 65c | 78.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked No | 52c | 78.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 44c | 75.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 52c | 71.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…9c0dbacked No | 58c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 67.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 41c | 67.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 30c | 66.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 40c | 65.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked No | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 75c | 64.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 66c | 64.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 60.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.