TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,657 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe9a2…27a0backed No1c4,805$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.313534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x894f…b53abacked Yes54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70a1…0422backed Yes54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5931…db3abacked No46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d99…12fbbacked No46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee3c…2775backed Yes54c1,950$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108a…561ebacked No46c1,950$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…ac05backed No45c1,900$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea8a…a7acbacked Yes55c1,900$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No15c1,058$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3364021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No7c846.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes53c524.94$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.945334%18 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c509.12$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.6617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked No56c392.93$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7935018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes57c368$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No8c356.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8534617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes39c350.84$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.986,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes53c348.28$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8611436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed No4c347.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.321931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No58c284.77$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes58c276.11$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.611,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No57c272.58$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.831,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No61c271.76$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.651,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes50c252.21$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No56c233.12$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.723,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No49c230.71$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.468,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c200.77$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes69c200.36$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.363759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes35c200.29$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.065527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed Yes68c200.22$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7117665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.415759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No51c199.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes45c199.49$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.4911646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes39c198.69$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes45c197.78$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0613523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes34c191.66$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes53c190.38$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1616036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521c…f98bbacked Yes55c180.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf198…dfedbacked Yes41c180.24$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.241050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed No56c180.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes38c176.94$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1411337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c173.58$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.693,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No58c169$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6354143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e32…000ebacked No9c168.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes24c166$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.7335232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df7…8325backed No7c160$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No46c159.57$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.831,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes59c158.08$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3686226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88a5…2772backed Yes43c152$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c74…ded8backed Yes46c151$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes27c150.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.411146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.233058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…e741backed Yes68c147.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.44650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c140.66$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.061,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes35c130$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked No30c129.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2924216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes57c128.8$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3817338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No45c125$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.521,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes49c119.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.210650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No73c119.75$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No50c119.39$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.997,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes78c115.95$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.553732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes61c114.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.233243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No43c110.34$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0518452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes38c110.14$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4333139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes23c110$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.711835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.242,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes39c104.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.041,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No45c100.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8657232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3422236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee89…cfb3backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5840438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes37c98.42$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.427225%18 W · 54 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x068f…4594backed Yes57c98.3$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe073…abb2backed No63c94.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.844427.3%12 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes72c90$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.25141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes47c89.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4710444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No52c86.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4113748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No59c84.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes49c81.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3117144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes77c81.02$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.98835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de4…427cbacked Yes51c80.39$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f1…946cbacked Yes47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.43053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes65c78.65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.716437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ba…882abacked No52c78.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.33966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+39.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No44c75.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2581756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes52c71.48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6418035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.28551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x33be…9c0dbacked No58c68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes25c67.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5686847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes41c67.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3822028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes30c66.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3112147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No40c65.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6727560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes54c65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6948331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked No29c65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes75c64.95$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.454961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd9…5b04backed No66c64.44$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.531844.4%8 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.26per pick70cpaid-36.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No78c60.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.529558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.