Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb86ee44febc0109b9740f5a5db5e4b5723ac658f671544b26327231e881a675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,409 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,888$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,690$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 2c | 1,521$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 5c | 786.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 32c | 568.12$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.46 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 39c | 462.88$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 461.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 459.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 18c | 397.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 351.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 14c | 239.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 29c | 234.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 227.81$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 225$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 56c | 218.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 31c | 212.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 197.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 22c | 195.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 22c | 195$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 42c | 192.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked No | 59c | 189.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 189.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 185$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 9c | 178.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 153.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 153.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 38c | 145.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 140.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 136.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…0cafbacked Yes | 29c | 136$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf431…adacbacked Yes | 31c | 133$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 76c | 131.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 36c | 125.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c4…865fbacked Yes | 29c | 118$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 114$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 70c | 107.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 38c | 103.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 56c | 101.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…dfb4backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…dfcabacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3dbbbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 99.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed No | 71c | 97.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 36c | 85.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 19c | 84.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed No | 68c | 83.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 27c | 81.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 44c | 81.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 38c | 79.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 77.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…427cbacked Yes | 36c | 77.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 75.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 33c | 75.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed No | 62c | 74.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 73.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 43c | 69.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…24d3backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 66.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 42c | 57.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked Yes | 30c | 57.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Yes | 30c | 56.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…1a83backed Yes | 42c | 55.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf88…e3e7backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked Yes | 47c | 53.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Yes | 32c | 52.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 36c | 50.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 30c | 49.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 39c | 48.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 42c | 47.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 24c | 47.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…ba19backed No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 25c | 45.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 63c | 45.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c366backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 39c | 42.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.