MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad2950aaab7d1e162f6a3524b9c0f180787c8a6cbe469508025294518ea0bbdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 7c | 4,882$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 3,723$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 2,987$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.27 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 828.97$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.58 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 634.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.39 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…3b87backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 605$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 379.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 77c | 341.02$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 321.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 310$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…b872backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 260.46$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 20c | 189$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fc…ff0bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 78c | 69.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Boston Red Sox | 28c | 68.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Boston Red Sox | 23c | 59.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 55.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 52.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 79c | 45.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 39.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.