MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31f14368fb6a174ae601ac217415cd8657a381759419eca3dde255466c468565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 2,501$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.02 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 2,264$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 1,630$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.41 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 26c | 1,561$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 1,282$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…2081backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 1,144$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 950.54$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.5 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 820.38$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 692.81$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.34 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 417.19$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 392$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 382.51$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 295.2$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 272$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 204.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 129.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 125.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…a9d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 102.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 89.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 84.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 74.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 73.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 71.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 66.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 66.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 65.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…fddabacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 26c | 63.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 26c | 58.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 49.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…fcdfbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 31.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 30.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.