MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ea65b278ad5acd5040e40d5c5a9bb5eafc67284f8c916bf3a68dd68b0a9575b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 43c | 8,011$3,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,557.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 57c | 6,478$3,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,692.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 43c | 3,095$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.32 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 57c | 2,647$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 43c | 2,502$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.41 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 46c | 969.31$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.84 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 57c | 657.89$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 57c | 530$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 502.88$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed No | 4c | 494.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 54c | 443.26$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.36 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed No | 3c | 339.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…23c9backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 259.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 57c | 220$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed No | 54c | 101.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…69f6backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3729…9870backed No | 57c | 64.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…5f86backed No | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked No | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed No | 56c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf50…480fbacked No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…3ef3backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…78a3backed No | 58c | 34.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked No | 56c | 31.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked No | 56c | 29.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…9526backed No | 57c | 20.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.