Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad3818b72aed90ee3124418890d84d330e5f791a34e1bd4fb98a6333d0ab70e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9203…513bbacked No | 30c | 2,978$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf510…f51abacked Yes | 70c | 1,460$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…3463backed Yes | 70c | 1,442$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 60c | 784.68$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 35c | 680$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.24 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 633.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 24c | 308.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.86 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 20c | 196.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 188.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 181.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 55c | 176$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 34c | 165.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 159.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 39c | 156.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 139.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 32c | 119.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 31c | 110.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 31c | 108.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 100.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 34c | 99.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 57c | 87.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 83.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 55c | 79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 79c | 76.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…391dbacked No | 42c | 70.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed Yes | 33c | 70.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 68.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 67c | 66.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 31c | 64.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 32c | 63.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 45c | 60.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…22e5backed Yes | 39c | 54.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 53.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 47c | 52.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 49.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 43.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked No | 74c | 42.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…9cd2backed Yes | 36c | 42.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 70c | 39.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…5923backed Yes | 36c | 39.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 50c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 50c | 36.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 36c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 67c | 32.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 48c | 31.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 31.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 49c | 29.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…e712backed Yes | 60c | 22.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ed…bb68backed Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 51c | 21.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9e44backed No | 70c | 21.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…aab7backed Yes | 54c | 21.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 21.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 57c | 21.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 48c | 20.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 19.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 67c | 19.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 13.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.