Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad4300dd229fed476334016d3d3918800b9f20f453463da9a3417b730d33ca7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 17c | 20,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.95 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 77c | 2,005$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.15 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 1,790$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.76 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 77c | 1,781$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.96 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,592$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.59 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 1,069$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.92 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed Yes | 12c | 556$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 10c | 378.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Yes | 14c | 368.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 11c | 316.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 14c | 268.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 22c | 233.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 26c | 192.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 182.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 13c | 158.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 22c | 116.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 16c | 115.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…00f1backed Yes | 25c | 101.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 18c | 72.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 20c | 71.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 78c | 66.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 75c | 56.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 79c | 54.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 77c | 50.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 77c | 34.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 77c | 22.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 77c | 21.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked No | 76c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-08-01?Yes won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.