MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadb52d9a5d7522a0b3a73f86ffaf5226cfc5868e63f00ea0ccefe85fa6cbe53f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 10,094$5,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,131.64 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Cincinnati Reds | 14c | 6,213$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.71 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 5,504$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 4,646$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.63 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 3,553$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.38 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 3,553$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.38 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 2,829$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.76 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 2,112$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…dcafbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 1,496$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.16 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 1,364$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.43 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 1,168$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.67 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 1,130$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.45 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 1,115$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.1 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 789.55$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.31 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 438.05$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.94 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 422$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.34 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 369.37$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.77 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 363$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.49 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 332.23$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 131.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 97.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 95.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 90.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 30.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 24.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.