NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadb5d7bf07229e278f3137f963d0d98e62adc5b0b4765a78db5b0eca2b101b76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rockets | 50c | 89,658$44,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,829.05 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 55,876$27,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,937.99 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Cavaliers | 50c | 30,098$15,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,156.73 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 51c | 9,153$4,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,668 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 49c | 8,295$4,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…f821backed Cavaliers | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Cavaliers | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Rockets | 49c | 2,032$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.35 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 50c | 896.35$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.15 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Cavaliers | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cavaliers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Cavaliers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Cavaliers | 51c | 115.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cavaliers | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 49c | 100.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Rockets | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Cavaliers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rockets | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Cavaliers vs. RocketsRockets won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.