NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5818b355f436e35af5dd2af51a2d1ccc7028650ca08b380ef9daeed05abada05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Cavaliers | 60c | 41,622$25,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,100 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Rockets | 40c | 19,823$7,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,893.85 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 41c | 6,515$2,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,831.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Rockets | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rockets | 38c | 2,090$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.38 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Rockets | 39c | 2,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets | 39c | 1,978$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.47 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Rockets | 40c | 1,747$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.2 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Cavaliers | 53c | 1,309$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.74 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 43c | 1,240$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rockets | 40c | 1,206$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.08 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 1,042$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.19 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Cavaliers | 58c | 896.55$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 39c | 829$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets | 42c | 800$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Rockets | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Cavaliers | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 45c | 464$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.56 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Rockets | 40c | 240$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Cavaliers | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cavaliers | 54c | 184$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Rockets | 40c | 177.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.38 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a5…525abacked Cavaliers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Cavaliers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Cavaliers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Rockets | 44c | 121.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rockets | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Cavaliers | 59c | 115$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Cavaliers | 38c | 105.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…b7f6backed Rockets | 42c | 91.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Rockets | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Rockets | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Rockets | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Rockets | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Cavaliers | 57c | 88.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Rockets | 42c | 85.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Cavaliers | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Rockets | 47c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Rockets | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers | 56c | 72.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Rockets | 40c | 72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Rockets | 40c | 72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Rockets | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Cavaliers | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Cavaliers | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Cavaliers | 64c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 54c | 58.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Rockets | 40c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Rockets | 40c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rockets | 40c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Rockets | 44c | 52.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Rockets | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…dff3backed Cavaliers | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Cavaliers | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Rockets | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Rockets | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Rockets | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Rockets | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Rockets | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Rockets | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Rockets | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Rockets | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Rockets | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Rockets | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Rockets | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Rockets | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Rockets | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Rockets | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Rockets | 42c | 33.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Rockets | 45c | 32.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Rockets | 40c | 29.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Rockets | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Rockets | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Rockets | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rockets | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…bb7cbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Cavaliers vs. RocketsRockets won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.