NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcad521b6f39d847c7861821e8907844534caa07cdd02d109ed0cc5f15b132f92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Rockets | 49c | 8,213$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,212.71 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 3,605$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…c0b3backed Cavaliers | 52c | 2,441$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Cavaliers | 55c | 2,431$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.11 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets | 48c | 2,223$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.24 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Rockets | 47c | 1,581$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.85 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Rockets | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers | 51c | 993$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.43 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 980$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Rockets | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.09 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 51c | 884.51$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.1 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…3153backed Cavaliers | 53c | 741.37$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Rockets | 48c | 599.99$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cavaliers | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Rockets | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Cavaliers | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc675…2ff3backed Cavaliers | 49c | 265$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…175fbacked Rockets | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers | 56c | 165$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Cavaliers | 55c | 111$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Cavaliers | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cavaliers | 53c | 107.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Rockets | 47c | 107.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Rockets | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Cavaliers | 53c | 103.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Rockets | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Rockets | 50c | 92.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…79abbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 92.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 80.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Cavaliers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Rockets | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Rockets | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…ccd2backed Cavaliers | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Rockets | 45c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4de3backed Rockets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Rockets | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Rockets | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Cavaliers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Rockets | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Cavaliers | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 51c | 29.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rockets | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cavaliers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Cavaliers vs. RocketsRockets won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.