NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95857c0e46ea7ac4e8a623b33867a68332bc2c7ecefc41e0fd3f1b813f57cf4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0394…20e9backed Under | 49c | 16,500$8,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,415 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…6bdcbacked Over | 51c | 16,500$8,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,415 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…2002backed Under | 49c | 16,000$7,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,160 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf88d…796dbacked Over | 51c | 16,000$8,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,160 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…3ba8backed Over | 51c | 15,700$8,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,007 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…388cbacked Under | 49c | 15,700$7,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,007 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.99 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Over | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,823$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…1827backed Under | 52c | 3,356$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 50c | 2,241$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.5 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…a13fbacked Under | 50c | 2,074$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under | 50c | 1,518$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Over | 43c | 1,291$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.29 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 1,071$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.43 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 996$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.92 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 49c | 613$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.37 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 6c | 576.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 56c | 571.43$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.43 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 48c | 494$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.12 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 51c | 451.57$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.27 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Over | 49c | 408.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 45c | 277.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 55c | 227$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 52c | 200.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 189.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 51c | 161.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 45c | 83.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | -13.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 61.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Over | 45c | 54.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…9dcebacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Over | 45c | 27.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 50c | 26.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Under | 50c | 26.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +12.1wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Cavaliers vs. RocketsRockets won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.