NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19670ea5c661f4d26260f9c03559fee3b69f057417e36092e7ea3e3b1e35d31d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0175…24f8backed Cavaliers | 49c | 3,244$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Rockets | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Rockets | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 1,414$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.75 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 971.25$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Cavaliers | 50c | 960$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9031…5265backed Rockets | 52c | 490.06$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.23 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Cavaliers | 50c | 300.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Rockets | 50c | 245.08$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Rockets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bf…e2c5backed Rockets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rockets | 48c | 168.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Rockets | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Rockets | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Rockets | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Cavaliers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…add9backed Rockets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 75c | 89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Rockets | 47c | 60.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cavaliers | 53c | 60.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Rockets | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 53c | 49.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…7f18backed Cavaliers | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cavaliers | 49c | 29.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rockets | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…44f3backed Rockets | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 46c | 22.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Rockets | 47c | 21.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…ce94backed Rockets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Rockets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Cavaliers vs. RocketsRockets won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.