Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadc64f108ff3ee33ed250b9ab703f4ef05addc20562267d0bfacecde8058aa27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 29c | 530.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.47 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 80c | 442.55$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 417.69$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 73c | 311.44$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 29c | 274.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.73 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 161$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 158.6$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 123.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 92.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 87.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 87.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 83.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 74.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 66c | 68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 72c | 67.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 64.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 32c | 61.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 40c | 54.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 51.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 46.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…03efbacked Yes | 28c | 44.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 32c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 32.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 73c | 30.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 70c | 26.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 52c | 25.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 73c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 16.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…4ed0backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.