MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadd827d14ef8fd9e44afa4f8861d7b706549bc48fb47c9382dcf0a128fae189c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 21c | 475.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 453.79$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.83 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 302.3$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.85 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 79c | 175.76$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 165.04$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Chicago Cubs | 79c | 120.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 103.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 96.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 90.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 79.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 60.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 58.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 79c | 57.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 48.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Chicago Cubs | 79c | 39.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Chicago Cubs | 68c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 29.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 28.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 22.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Chicago Cubs | 76c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.