MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaaca7e1ac26e946ad12d5ae971f70fe52758704977aeb7e13c8a09a595e029e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 2,163$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.87 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 2,028$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.82 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 1,543$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.54 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 1,149$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.29 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 834.22$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.67 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 702.72$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.5 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 548.61$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.43 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 538.74$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 397.3$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.28 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 78c | 361.33$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 311.44$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 273.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.43 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 249.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.24 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 229.64$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 191.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 151.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 143.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 140.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 106.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 100.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 93.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 91.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 80.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 64.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…a39dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 55.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…34c0backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 46.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aed…7896backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 40.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…0c58backed Chicago Cubs | 79c | 39.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 39.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Chicago Cubs | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 37.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 37.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 37.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 35.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 34.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 29.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e41…a724backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 20.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.