NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadfcc08b53ce1c74925849c7eb87d5d930d01a3c7e8dbe37c4389928a840d896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 2,886$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.97 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 1,647$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.4 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 1,247$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.91 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 53c | 900$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Under | 52c | 673.08$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 48c | 627$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Under | 48c | 420$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 384.43$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.68 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 44c | 350$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 56c | 350$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 325$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.75 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 239$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.11 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 49c | 220$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…bdc1backed Over | 49c | 220$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…10ebbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…6921backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…74ccbacked Over | 54c | 184$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 145.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d45…1ba7backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 112 | 64.3%72 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…82c3backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729f…2184backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5this page
- Magic vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Magic vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Magic vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.