Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae07327744b18553d826a359e36743bf28fe738362e4634e00fe51bc989b27ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 276.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.55 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 21c | 268.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.88 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 174.2$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 64c | 144.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 135.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 123.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 16c | 123.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 44c | 109.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 56c | 106.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 100.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 93.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 92.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 84.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 70c | 80.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 78.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 78.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 76.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 21c | 75.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 74.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 74.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 57c | 70.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 77c | 64.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 60.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 59.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 41c | 57.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 56.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 54.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 29c | 54.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 25c | 54.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 41c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 28c | 53.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 77c | 51.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 54c | 50.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 48.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 45.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 49c | 45.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed Yes | 39c | 44.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 66c | 40.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 40.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…ffb3backed Yes | 45c | 34.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 45c | 33.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 62c | 31.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…81fdbacked Yes | 49c | 29.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…09e7backed Yes | 35c | 29.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 28.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 26.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 54c | 26.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 51c | 24.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked No | 67c | 24.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 23.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 20.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 54c | 18.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.