Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5db748363a6664b2ce3ac90f771901f00606101c7e9145ab440fe9ee56386a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 505.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 215.12$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 33c | 201.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 66c | 197.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 194.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 20c | 186.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 160.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 149.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 142.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 118$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 117.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 14c | 117.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 114.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 9c | 112.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 112.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 90.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 87.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 84.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 38c | 81.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked No | 65c | 78.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 41c | 72.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 71c | 66.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 57.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 50.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 48.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 45.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…7996backed No | 79c | 42.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 40.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 62c | 40.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…ffb3backed Yes | 30c | 34.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 59c | 30.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 26.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 23.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 68c | 21.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 78c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.