Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae273e7ee2c1efa8bbbe0dd4c8b6e46a5619621d8e2f97ec42cb9ec5bc88955b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed No | 1c | 1,856$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 41c | 1,243$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.48 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 1,052$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 2c | 932$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 804.12$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 9c | 498.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 79c | 485.56$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 35c | 316.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.34 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 269.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 80c | 189.77$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 63c | 161.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 130.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 37c | 118.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 103.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 65c | 101$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 69c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 23c | 74.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 67.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 64c | 61.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 59.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 31c | 54.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 43c | 46.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…2551backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 41.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…622dbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb733…6cc4backed Yes | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…d4c3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 18.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 28?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.