NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae4a5575cf7ca396623ae3c3c2d67e21d85ce70a903d9d92ae40f60a8e7a861d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,010 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 2,206$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.26 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 54c | 1,834$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.68 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Over | 45c | 1,522$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 43c | 802.17$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.87 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 45c | 593$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.85 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 57c | 509.29$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 54c | 459.31$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.28 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 67c | 449.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 44c | 407.42$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.26 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 309$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.05 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 25c | 272.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 44c | 226.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa80…f251backed Under | 56c | 218.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2e…7913backed Under | 55c | 180.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 47c | 135$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 43c | 132.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…6763backed Under | 57c | 95.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 40c | 78.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 45c | 43.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 33c | 39.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…492ebacked Under | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9b…61c7backed Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 44c | 37.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…05b5backed Over | 44c | 32.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Under | 58c | 30.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 68c | 27.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 58c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed Under | 58c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Panthers vs. Red WingsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.