NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb844ed426caaca971309733659c486484b7652ec4103fe0dcc8e6351050a3412
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,774 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 60c | 8,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 36c | 3,612$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.88 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 40c | 2,557$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.24 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 40c | 2,414$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.63 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 72c | 1,500$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 1,179$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.32 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 71c | 836.32$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.91 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 76c | 717$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.64 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 30c | 620$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.32 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 24c | 611.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.17 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.61 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 69c | 591.13$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.37 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 71c | 578.48$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.51 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Over | 76c | 499.47$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.6 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…1405backed Under | 42c | 495.56$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 27c | 452.88$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.88 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 6c | 428.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 24c | 348.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.27 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 332.25$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.76 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 76c | 319.5$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.82 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Over | 76c | 314$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.64 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 73c | 285.66$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.53 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 53c | 259.59$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.01 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 41c | 209$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a877backed Under | 66c | 196.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 56c | 194$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 65c | 192.4$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 169.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 39c | 114$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 76c | 113$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 57c | 105.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 21c | 97.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 71c | 75.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…92c9backed Under | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…b94cbacked Under | 56c | 53.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 34c | 52.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 32c | 49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 73c | 48.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac94…e414backed Over | 76c | 48.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…ccf7backed Over | 77c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 57c | 39.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 45c | 38.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 65c | 33.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 34c | 31.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 49c | 29.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 62c | 28.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 74c | 23.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…2607backed Over | 62c | 19.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f6bfbacked Over | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5this page
- Panthers vs. Red WingsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.