NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad7507561cbd31e07c5d64bb49b4de82574168d33bb41220f3bf703e735fe1f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Red Wings, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,460 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Red Wings | 37c | 3,263$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.35 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Panthers | 64c | 2,222$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.02 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Panthers | 63c | 1,457$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.97 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Panthers | 63c | 1,348$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.85 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Red Wings | 36c | 797$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.54 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Red Wings | 37c | 380$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Red Wings | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 393 | 43%169 W · 224 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings | 35c | 202.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Red Wings | 37c | 190$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Panthers | 66c | 181.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Red Wings | 34c | 179.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…8a3bbacked Red Wings | 37c | 160.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Red Wings | 35c | 142.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Panthers | 78c | 128.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Panthers | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Red Wings | 35c | 116.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Panthers | 65c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Panthers | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Panthers | 65c | 104.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Panthers | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Red Wings | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Red Wings | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Panthers | 65c | 78.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Red Wings | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Red Wings | 34c | 62.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Panthers | 68c | 52.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Panthers | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Panthers | 69c | 48.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Panthers | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Red Wings | 23c | 44.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…0f16backed Red Wings | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Panthers | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Panthers | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Panthers | 64c | 27.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Panthers | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…0436backed Panthers | 65c | 22.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Panthers | 64c | 21.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea7…a912backed Panthers | 65c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…0261backed Panthers | 65c | 15.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Panthers vs. Red WingsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.