Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae7e17d8187903e5c9490000e53e9678db8f00282bfa502d34b2a5e347d98e87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7de5…7784backed Yes | 1c | 11,933$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 20c | 1,100$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.87 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 17c | 826.17$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 590.18$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 14c | 553.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 7c | 393.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 6c | 386.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 39c | 333.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.28 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 18c | 310.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 286$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 239.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 69c | 228$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 5c | 226.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b334backed Yes | 9c | 213.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 213$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 191.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 16c | 185.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 31c | 177.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 156.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 154$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d8…9383backed Yes | 8c | 145.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 136.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 135.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 53c | 132.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 129.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 17c | 108.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 13c | 97.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 50c | 96.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…a481backed Yes | 28c | 93.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 91.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 22c | 90.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 88.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…2861backed Yes | 38c | 52.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 75c | 45.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 63c | 41.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 71c | 40.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 39.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 65c | 39.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 41c | 36.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 40c | 36.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 35.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 32.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…03cebacked Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 25.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 23.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 17.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 75c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 41°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.