Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a57ee3fbf983a47cfdbe232fe9eb049b1f6ff3f484da2342b2a9a7d52541b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked No | 0c | 3,950$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 32c | 700$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.97 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 11c | 597.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 17c | 595$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 590.18$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked No | 3c | 568.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 32c | 443.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 36c | 442.17$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 429.41$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 407$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 403.71$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 46c | 375.24$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 56c | 366.45$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 333.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 48c | 323.31$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.19 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 50c | 307.69$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.85 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 80c | 292.66$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 48c | 292.57$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.57 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 70c | 263.41$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 242.23$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 50c | 236.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.47 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 195.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 47c | 179.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 56c | 177.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 177.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 173.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 152.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 46c | 148.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 41c | 145.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 42c | 143.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 140.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed No | 50c | 136.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 135.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…c0a0backed Yes | 50c | 128.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 64c | 123.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 52c | 120.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 52c | 120.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 56c | 119.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 116.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbe…84d1backed No | 52c | 112.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 75c | 111.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 110.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 55c | 106.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 49c | 102.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 100.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 28c | 100.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 38c | 96.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 94.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 70c | 94.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed No | 45c | 91.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 88.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…2861backed Yes | 30c | 87.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d8…9383backed Yes | 36c | 85.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 72c | 84.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 51c | 82.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 77c | 82.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…4c9bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213f…ad88backed No | 21c | 71.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 50c | 70.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 50c | 69.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 32c | 69.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…5180backed Yes | 32c | 69.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 48c | 67.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 65.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 44c | 65.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 56c | 65.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 63.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 56c | 62.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 39c | 60.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 36c | 59.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 57.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 56c | 56.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…3d7cbacked No | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…a481backed Yes | 42c | 54.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 31c | 52.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b334backed Yes | 29c | 52.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…f2cdbacked No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 53c | 49.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 44.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 51c | 44.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 47c | 44.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 44.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 41c | 44.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked Yes | 77c | 44.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 54c | 43.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 47c | 42.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 42.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 41°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.