Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d38e18596533976ea2fe3f1472e336be900936677426dc4f74e5df64e584e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 0c | 5,298$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe428…50bfbacked Yes | 40c | 1,675$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 846.51$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 625.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 37c | 564.9$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.06 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 457.98$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 75c | 373.06$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 330$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 328.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 247.87$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 220.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 198$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 190$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 31c | 130.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 127.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 40c | 100.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 98.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 79.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 79.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 74.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 39c | 68.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 67.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 41c | 65.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 24c | 60.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 22c | 57.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 76c | 57.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 71c | 52.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…4c9bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 41c | 48.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 30c | 43.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 40c | 41.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…df71backed Yes | 37c | 40.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 74c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 60c | 39.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 39.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…2861backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…45f8backed Yes | 38c | 35.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 41c | 33.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…824ebacked Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 66c | 28.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed No | 74c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…57d6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 60c | 21.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 21.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 21.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 20.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 19.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…e57bbacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 72c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 41°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.