TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Nemesisof Nemiga, Team Nemesis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,783 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a5c…a375backed Nemiga60c50,148$30,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,070.225238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Team Nemesis40c46,261$18,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,756.7522049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2606…ba10backed Nemiga64c11,757$7,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,485.933956.4%22 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Nemesis30c9,503$2,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,628.8332348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Nemiga52c5,484$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865.3257358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Team Nemesis37c4,227$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,672.685,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60c3…5947backed Nemiga58c3,363$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.571330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Nemesis36c2,042$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.031,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1234…c1bbbacked Team Nemesis36c2,030$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.764721.3%10 W · 37 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-44.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe193…cc85backed Nemiga69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.97825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-64.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Nemesis36c1,865$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.3418341%75 W · 108 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nemiga57c1,675$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.153,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbea…8e58backed Nemiga62c1,612$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.632254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed Team Nemesis37c1,580$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.2822045.5%100 W · 120 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Nemiga1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151030%0 W · 103 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Nemiga65c1,484$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.9936742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Nemesis46c1,196$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.74,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Team Nemesis36c998.91$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.3457641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed Nemiga68c980.73$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.832263.6%14 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked Team Nemesis22c860.96$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.38232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Team Nemesis35c705.6$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.6452636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Team Nemesis43c673.94$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.21,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa5…e615backed Nemiga65c589.37$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.363568.6%24 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Nemiga63c565.07$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.4419043.7%83 W · 107 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Nemesis44c522.6$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.227,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Team Nemesis38c506.74$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.1810651.9%55 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team Nemesis37c505.72$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.615,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed Team Nemesis36c501.16$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.411247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+16.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd07…8d16backed Nemiga53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26511645.7%53 W · 63 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Nemiga60c498.36$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0229851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Nemesis40c482$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.253545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed Nemiga63c473.4$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2519351.8%100 W · 93 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Team Nemesis36c450$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.5154032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d29…c9eebacked Team Nemesis36c356.62$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.491850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Team Nemesis35c341.97$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.728549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x724c…1521backed Nemiga62c316.96$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.49862.2%61 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Nemiga65c299.98$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9940247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Team Nemesis36c271.35$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.3823653.8%127 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Nemesis33c269.67$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.2378348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9bf…4bebbacked Nemiga63c265$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.24047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa246…c6acbacked Nemiga47c264.32$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.151450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad1…7653backed Team Nemesis36c253.86$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.472347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed Team Nemesis37c247.74$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.332552%13 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+40.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga43c236.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.485,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x757d…1496backed Team Nemesis38c230.02$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9224649.6%122 W · 124 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis40c229.74$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.916,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c23…9d76backed Nemiga60c209.84$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Team Nemesis31c206.1$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.214555.6%25 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d8…5cfbbacked Team Nemesis36c200.33$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.211369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Nemiga65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Team Nemesis31c190.85$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.688552.9%45 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Nemiga76c189.93$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.821540%6 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick57cpaid+97.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c8c…2359backed Team Nemesis32c187.04$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.199351.6%48 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Nemiga75c182.94$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.21666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dac…b29cbacked Team Nemesis45c164.38$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4de…0da4backed Team Nemesis57c158.24$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.233960.8%206 W · 133 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d7…f131backed Team Nemesis36c150$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9633451.5%172 W · 162 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nemiga50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7331328.4%89 W · 224 L-21.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x980c…74cebacked Nemiga71c138.18$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…b45fbacked Nemiga10c132.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.247758.4%45 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Team Nemesis54c127$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.253,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nemiga36c122.58$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.884,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Nemesis41c117.66$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.974,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaf…064abacked Team Nemesis17c117.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.651968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+48.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4693…bf61backed Team Nemesis42c116.62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.692272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+38.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Team Nemesis36c108.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7319344%85 W · 108 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7cd…e98dbacked Nemiga67c108.13$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.813778.4%29 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x231d…4bdfbacked Nemiga58c107.94$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.463638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Nemesis38c106.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.682,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x06db…1e5cbacked Nemiga63c103.87$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.528146.9%38 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f0…ad99backed Nemiga23c103.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.851942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Team Nemesis38c101.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8454348.6%264 W · 279 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Team Nemesis71c99.72$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0723072.6%167 W · 63 L+27.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Team Nemesis36c98.83$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2597230%292 W · 680 L-23.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Nemiga56c93.81$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5814742.2%62 W · 85 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Team Nemesis36c93.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.891,07832%345 W · 733 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nemiga54c93.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.172,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Team Nemesis35c86.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9239440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Team Nemesis44c84.32$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.223638.9%14 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb4f3…dbd2backed Nemiga73c81.28$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf69b…a6ddbacked Team Nemesis40c76.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.617545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Nemesis47c76.16$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.521,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec6…e52cbacked Team Nemesis72c69.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.358360.2%50 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked Nemiga64c68.58$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.898459.5%50 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf020…cddbbacked Team Nemesis27c68.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.26650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fd…d60dbacked Nemiga64c68.36$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.048554.1%46 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nemiga63c67.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.11,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…4ce2backed Nemiga77c64.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.311958%69 W · 50 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40db…3082backed Team Nemesis28c64.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.85633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Nemesis34c63.63$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.72,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Team Nemesis38c63.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.991833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Nemiga68c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.864439.8%256 W · 388 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Nemiga50c57.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.982,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Nemesis29c56.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.051,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Nemiga52c55.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4440652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…3fa9backed Team Nemesis44c54.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.75966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41b4…51fdbacked Nemiga65c53.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.418842%37 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Team Nemesis46c53.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7836554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe24f…d68abacked Nemiga37c52.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.245164.7%33 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0077…44a7backed Nemiga73c52.16$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.314537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.