TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,296 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals51c1,200$608 inLost-$6085,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals43c580.85$248 inWon+$332.8812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals49c536$263 inWon+$273.364,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed Washington Nationals21c341$72 inWon+$269.0625034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals78c193.37$151 inLost-$150.6411,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals49c129$63 inWon+$65.793,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kansas City Royals33c74$24 inLost-$24.421,72250.3%867 W · 855 L+55.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals59c73.64$43 inWon+$30.566,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Kansas City Royals44c56.39$25 inLost-$24.815942.4%25 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kansas City Royals33c55$18 inLost-$18.151,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals73c50$36 inWon+$13.58,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Kansas City Royals33c40$13 inLost-$13.235248%169 W · 183 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals59c35$21 inWon+$14.36,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Kansas City Royals31c32$10 inLost-$101,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals61c18.27$11 inWon+$7.092,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.