TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$321,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$321,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,011 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Under52c202,403$104,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,379.5948148.6%234 W · 247 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over49c100,000$48,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,004.8955253.1%293 W · 259 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under52c88,954$46,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,256.1741149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6e…5cfdbacked Over48c75,145$36,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,075.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Over48c72,917$35,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,916.6717248.3%83 W · 89 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over48c20,761$9,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,795.7292554.1%500 W · 425 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over48c20,354$9,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,588.11,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under51c7,357$3,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,764.453,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over48c4,422$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.7311,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under51c3,266$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.661,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Over48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca28…49debacked Over47c2,127$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.315050%25 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over48c1,841$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.214,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under51c1,505$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.4991252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over48c1,447$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.476,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Over49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56121052.9%111 W · 99 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dd…23ffbacked Under53c1,100$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58339440.9%161 W · 233 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under51c999.99$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.641,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under52c840$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.82,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over48c744.68$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.4887850.5%443 W · 435 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Over48c508.5$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.526545.7%121 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Over48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26021653.2%115 W · 101 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under51c421.88$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1657551.7%297 W · 278 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Under52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2082,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Over48c333.33$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.3396349%472 W · 491 L-39.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under51c324.7$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.61,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Over49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15310057%57 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Over48c295$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over48c265$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.81,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over59c261.17$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.335,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under51c230.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.729,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3366748.7%325 W · 342 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under51c201.94$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.858,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121,44550%723 W · 722 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10024350.2%122 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f8…7de3backed Under53c200$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10538342%161 W · 222 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under53c199$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.473,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Over50c194.66$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3390446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038453.9%207 W · 177 L+16.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under17c175.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.541,92817.2%331 W · 1,597 L-320.9wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xdf3f…1365backed Under65c170.28$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11015159.6%90 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Over48c166.58$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6243560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Under53c166.04$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8816246.3%75 W · 87 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under35c131.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.43,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Over50c122.38$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1960049.3%296 W · 304 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Under51c114.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.432850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under44c108.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.415,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Over48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1716251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1744348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6f…cb64backed Over48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.178251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Over50c104.1$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0540554.8%222 W · 183 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over41c103.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0112,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…6471backed Under51c74.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0710252%53 W · 49 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd6…bf96backed Over48c65.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8113348.9%65 W · 68 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1bd…b053backed Over48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.52157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Under50c59.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6716258%94 W · 68 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Under52c58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1645545.7%208 W · 247 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Over47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1962554.2%339 W · 286 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under63c51.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.261,41449.5%700 W · 714 L-4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Over50c50.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1127146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.82,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed95…889cbacked Under51c48.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bda…8254backed Under51c48.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.928966.3%59 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over52c43.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.076,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over50c43.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6445246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under53c41.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.013,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under54c40.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,02250.6%517 W · 505 L+54.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.446557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Over37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.276558%444 W · 321 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…fcc5backed Under51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204348.8%21 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over50c38.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.411,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Over50c37.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5951555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Over50c34.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4632846.6%153 W · 175 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6123…8b33backed Over48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2526853.7%144 W · 124 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe246…dedcbacked Over50c30.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3526753.9%144 W · 123 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ac…0e0bbacked Under51c30.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5811951.3%61 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Over49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4534846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49f0…f942backed Under53c28.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8490…ac46backed Over48c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Over50c24.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3554152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under54c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0110,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over50c22.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.491,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Over50c22.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4318353.6%98 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under63c21.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.554,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under54c21.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over53c19.18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.012,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.