MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd684980b931e66483cf0b443e3f3a7d2139c25273cd50b9479acd415ae0b0db7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 52,200$32,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,352.65 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 37,603$14,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,314.05 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 15,000$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,299.99 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 4,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,439.96 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 2,922$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…1846backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 2,742$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 2,284$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 2,200$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 2,110$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 1,621$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.9 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 1,575$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 703.75$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.29 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 548.9$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 498.92$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.33 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 481.36$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.82 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 420$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 388.12$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.63 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 268.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 255.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 255.89$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.65 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 245.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 227.63$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 216.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 193.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 187.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.23 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 160$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 150.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 131.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 114.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 109$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 109$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 76.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 62.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…49b3backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 60.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 59.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 57.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 55.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 53.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 50.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 50.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…cd3fbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 41.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 41.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 40.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc62…ba48backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 38.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 35.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…fcc5backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 29.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 28.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 25.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 69c | 25.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 22.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 20.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.