MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0995c83e6a6d7a2a7277193e8a18e359fa0d411af5ad2d36e2c0633d800d171b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 57c | 67,663$38,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,859.29 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 43,626$18,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,309.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 36c | 16,322$5,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,446.37 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 64c | 14,297$9,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,149.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 12,696$5,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,455.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 11,509$5,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,423.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Under | 60c | 11,005$6,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,580.23 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 4,862$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,568.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 3,739$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047.56 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 46c | 3,580$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.86 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 46c | 1,795$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.29 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 57c | 1,170$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.1 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 64c | 773.19$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.84 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 64c | 769.23$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.31 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 46c | 681.82$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.18 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 64c | 464$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.96 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 42c | 399.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 345.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 41c | 339.83$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.99 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 40c | 333.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 323.37$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 44c | 217.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 55c | 129.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a4…30a3backed Over | 32c | 127$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 67c | 123.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 46c | 110.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 39c | 103.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 42c | 81.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 68c | 78.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 74.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…cbffbacked Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 23c | 63.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 46c | 63.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 57c | 58.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Over | 57c | 55.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 54c | 55.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 56c | 53.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 59c | 39.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d7…a2fdbacked Over | 43c | 37.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d8…f690backed Over | 41c | 37.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Over | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 45c | 35.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bac…e59dbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x123e…eed4backed Over | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 46c | 27.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0172backed Over | 46c | 25.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…1b39backed Over | 48c | 25.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…14edbacked Under | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 44c | 23.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…918fbacked Under | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 77c | 22.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 53c | 20.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 60c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Under | 71c | 20.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | +11.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Under | 61c | 18.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.