MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ffb3a4699706619d7177cef556f5aa6fe0ee65dd85bcc8d57f0a32a84a11f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 30c | 16,082$4,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,823.97 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 70c | 14,281$9,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,284.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 2,474$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 18c | 1,821$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 70c | 684.93$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.48 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 599.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 70c | 479.9$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.97 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 70c | 425.27$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.58 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 263$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.67 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 243.77$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 60c | 236.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 60c | 216.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 209.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 62c | 192$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 135.65$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 21c | 111.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 44c | 101.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 21c | 79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 71c | 76.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 71.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 47c | 63.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 40c | 52.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Under | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 42.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 56c | 42.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 40c | 39.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 79c | 37.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 75c | 33.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 37c | 31.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 75c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bac…e59dbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 61c | 22.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Over | 74c | 21.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…14edbacked Under | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 70c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.