Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Thiago Seyboth Wild
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed77ed6a16a67d852edbda7c244b6ac88b7a8c684048bfe7778c2bd5c2cd27b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Meza, Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wild | 76c | 1,208$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.61 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Meza | 15c | 899.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Meza | 33c | 794.2$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Meza | 44c | 445.83$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.64 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Wild | 70c | 427.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.14 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Meza | 17c | 298.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Wild | 69c | 288.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Meza | 32c | 285.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Meza | 34c | 242$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Wild | 53c | 202.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Wild | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Meza | 20c | 178.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Wild | 70c | 154.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Meza | 29c | 149$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ad…6b4cbacked Wild | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Meza | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Meza | 30c | 134.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c5…deeebacked Meza | 34c | 111.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7206…4861backed Meza | 33c | 108.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Wild | 79c | 101.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Meza | 14c | 96.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Wild | 75c | 68.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Wild | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Meza | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a9…35fcbacked Wild | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Meza | 24c | 44.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Wild | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…824ebacked Wild | 66c | 36.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wild | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…610dbacked Wild | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…6899backed Wild | 69c | 23.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed Wild | 71c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Wild | 69c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Thiago Seyboth Wildthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Meza vs WildWild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.