Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaedab3644103df78764dca27a60931985cb525276d5aa1259c8a02a6a7dae2c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 17c | 2,822$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.17 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 2,002$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.26 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Over | 79c | 1,250$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.47 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 13c | 913.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 793.89$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.83 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 22c | 785.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 79c | 681.77$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x458c…ee3ebacked Over | 78c | 632.56$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Over | 80c | 622.44$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 551.27$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 5c | 292.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Over | 80c | 268.3$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e241backed Over | 77c | 256.16$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 15c | 208.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 21c | 199.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Under | 23c | 195.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 78c | 193.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 14c | 189.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 21c | 145.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Under | 12c | 143.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 20c | 141.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 79c | 139.22$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 79c | 128.74$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…317ebacked Over | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…cf1fbacked Over | 79c | 102.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Over | 77c | 99.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Under | 21c | 98.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…17fcbacked Over | 77c | 89.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb794…ded3backed Over | 77c | 88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 79c | 84.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 22c | 69.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…555cbacked Over | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Over | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6a…ce99backed Over | 80c | 48.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ea…05b8backed Over | 79c | 46.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 78c | 32.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 79c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 80c | 22.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…a5dabacked Over | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…9f48backed Over | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fddbbacked Over | 80c | 12.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.