Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cb34a4aa2e330f903217f589b8baa4ca0709cb9b8b963f66301c6c5c0307d3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 51c | 8,284$4,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,209 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 7,219$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,629.25 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…38f6backed Over | 50c | 5,152$2,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,575.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 4,865$3,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.79 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 8c | 3,410$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.09 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 27c | 2,679$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.37 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 71c | 2,155$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.75 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 64c | 1,569$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.77 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d8…6052backed Under | 55c | 884.55$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 884$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.8 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 56c | 733.09$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 17c | 678.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 74c | 599.1$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.76 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 73c | 585.81$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.28 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 16c | 482.39$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 43c | 466.7$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.56 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Under | 51c | 387.27$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 47c | 299$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Under | 73c | 295.33$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 66c | 280.98$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 36c | 192.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Over | 17c | 167.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 9c | 162.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 67c | 159.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4768backed Over | 16c | 148.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 136$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…57bebacked Over | 56c | 133.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 27c | 133.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Over | 38c | 105.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 16c | 89.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 70c | 79.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Over | 50c | 68.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Under | 52c | 65.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 51c | 61.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…829bbacked Under | 76c | 58.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 54.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 45c | 36.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 34c | 31.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…262ebacked Over | 39c | 27.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 68c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.