Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf28686c639d2daf3a92662718c501ee431e850b4f68e3f49d2fe5b59632903d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 1,431$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.65 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,353$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.1 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 22c | 820.58$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.12 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 365.35$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 354.74$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 74c | 348.17$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 267.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 221.22$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 29c | 218.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…4fffbacked Yes | 33c | 186.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 73c | 180.8$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Yes | 33c | 179.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 162.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 159.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 147.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 143.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 116.07$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 30c | 115.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 23c | 115$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 110.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 77c | 109.58$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 104.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 103.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked No | 69c | 97.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 28c | 95.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 88.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 75c | 87.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 75c | 87.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 71c | 86.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 22c | 76.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 25c | 72.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 31c | 71.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 70.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 68.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 66.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 60.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 75c | 60.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 52.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 69c | 52.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 38.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 75c | 31.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed No | 79c | 21.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…1f3dbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.