TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,821
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,821 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes54c1,357$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.331043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes31c1,154$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.7117536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No65c393.7$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.641,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c382.92$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.694,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed Yes47c381.9$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9221264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No43c309.9$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.594,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c303.89$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15056543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes62c229.99$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7289544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No69c214$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.663,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No48c199.65$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.844,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No27c183.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.074,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No41c181.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1166543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c168.98$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No68c153$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.042,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No73c150$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.571649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Yes56c142.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.93562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x23e8…4fffbacked Yes56c141.45$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes36c138.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3431836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1420339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes35c125$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes34c112.06$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.471,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes39c100.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.36650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4215529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4230442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.117025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No28c98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.12,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No32c97.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.814,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e45…fb2cbacked No22c93.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6360%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes36c89.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.62,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes73c85.31$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.726,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes59c81.64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8713838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No44c81.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.831,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.763,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.135056%28 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes39c75.84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.621,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes57c68.87$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6416532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes35c68.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5787437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd7…7842backed Yes60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes41c63.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.723,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes64c60.03$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.433,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.064,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5397152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.454253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb22c…8aadbacked No65c58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.71442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No36c54.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4821451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes35c54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34d…2a65backed No69c54$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.265724.6%14 W · 43 L-15.2wins-0.27per pick51cpaid-53.5%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No54c53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6242547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No55c53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1523958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No45c52.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.342,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No37c51.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.011,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No38c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.595,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.546457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72e5…6412backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2316936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…6e40backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317040%28 W · 42 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes79c48.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.352166.7%14 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No65c47.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0749551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes35c47.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6854547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d3…a178backed No39c46.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.129652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No25c43.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.932,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes48c41.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6762555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked No43c40.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5740237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No38c39.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No43c39.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1733654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes66c38.96$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1247136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x152f…3cc3backed No33c37.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.314057.5%23 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes57c36.47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.684,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes56c35.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.461,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c33.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes36c33.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2129948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes35c32.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.852,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes52c31.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8518945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes36c30.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8282742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa957…7638backed Yes73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.174555.6%25 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes40c25.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.092429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No64c24.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4517361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No59c21.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8817633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes77c20.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49f…e66dbacked No58c19.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.583828.9%11 W · 27 L-6.8wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-44.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x95ab…45bebacked Yes73c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.94580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9400…1f3dbacked No63c15.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No65c15.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.331,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes70c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5522740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.